Elections Since 1977 and Pointers to 2019 elections by K.R.Sekar

 

I have been observing elections since 1977 both LokSabha and Assembly. I am not a phespologist nor i am Pranoy Roy types but observing since 1977, i thought I could share my analysis and my thoughts. Every elections are fought differently and i come to a conclusion after each elections that certainly People know what needs to be done and sometime politicians underestimate or overestimate the undercurrent. Let me explain my analysis of each election since 1977 and my analysis to the forthcoming election.

 

1977: First time Congress lost and the new opposition party emerged. The merger of all Parties into one and the reach of great political stalwarts like Jayaprakash Narayan, Acharya JB Kriplani and Morori Desai gave Janata Party an absolute majority. North & West voted against the Congress and south voted in favor of Congress. Emergency brought all the leaders together and People were terribly angry and upset on Emergency. This was felt more in North and West and to certain extent in East than in South. This election proved that people can vote out the government and a negative vote and powerful leaders with mass contact can bring down a powerful leader like Indira. This is the election when Jagjivan Ram/H.N.Bahuguna who were powerful leaders of Congress left Congress before the elections and formed new party called Congress for Democracy and merged with Janata Party. Beginning of the end of Congress in states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

 

Do we have such a powerful leader like JP/Acharya JB Kriplani/Morarji Desai who have connect with People and mobilize the people against the Government? My answer is No.

 

1979 Election

Janata Party was split and Votes were split between multiple parties. JP and Acharya JB Kriplani died between 1977 and 1979 and Morori left Politics. People were not happy with the fall of Janata Government and the experiment (typical Mahaghatbhandan) failed. Result Congress won and Indira was back as PM despite most powerful backward community leader Jagjivan Ram was projected as PM by Janata Party but Congress won. Result: Though Congress share was less than 50% but split between votes and the inability of leaders like Jagjivan Ram and Charan Singh to come together caused a split and Congress voted to power.

 

Question for 2019 election.

Does Mahaghatbandhan can vote out present government and prevention of split in votes against the ruling Party will benefit the Opposition.

 

1984 Election

Assassination of Indira Gandhi and sympathy wave for Congress and Rajiv gave three fourth majority for Congress and allies. Congress won every state barring AP. N.T.Rama Rao won 33 out of 42 seats in AP and emerged as principal leader of Opposition. First time in Indian Political History a Regional Party occupied the leader of Opposition. Vajpayee/Advani/Madhu Dhandavate and some of the best opposition leaders lost the election. BJP was reduced to two seats.

 

1989 Election

 

Bofors dominated the Elections. People believed that Congress and Rajiv Gandhi were indeed Corrupt in Bofors. Further the exit of V.P.Singh/Arun Nehru/Arun Singh from Congress made people to believe that Rajiv Gandhi was indulged in Corruption. The sensational disclosures by Chitra Subramaniam then Journalist and Indian Express investigation journalism brought downfall of Rajiv Gandhi. Further Congress created its own problem by reversing SC judgment in Shaho Bhano and opening of Shilanya Pooja for Ram Mandir it helped BJP to consolidated Hindu Votes. VP Singh who left Congress emerged as a leader for Opposition and all Regional Parties like DMK,TDP and Janata Party ( which was in power in Karnataka ) AGP formed a new front called National Front and fought the elections under the leadership of VP Singh. BJP was not part of National Front and NF had friendly tie up with Communist and despite two way split of opposition into NF and BJP, Congress lost badly. Though Rajiv Gandhi was the leader of Congress and was more acceptable face, the party lost the elections.

 

Reason: Bofors and exit of powerful leaders like VP Singh, Arun Nehru and Arun Singh from Congress made people to believe that Congress was party to Corruption. Regional Parties needed one leader who could marshall them and at that time leader like N.T.Rama Rao Ramakrishna Hegde propelled VP Singh into leadership role and created a cult around VP Singh. Though i personally don’t have any regards for VP Singh but he could galvanize Bofors into powerful campaign. The mistake of Congress in reversing SC judgment of Shaho Bhano and opening of Shilanya Pooja helped BJP to consolidate votes. The arithmetic of percentage of votes did not help Congress.

 

Questions for 2019 elections

Will Raffle deal be one more Bofors? Will arithmetic of votes will help BJP or Mahaghatbandhan?

 

1991 Election

First time Lok Sabha Elections were conducted in two phase. Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated after first phase and but before second phase. It helped Congress to win sizeable votes in Second Phase. The elections in second phase gave congress a majority. BJP became principal opposition in 1991 by winning more than 120 seats.

 

1996 Election

No universal candidate for Prime Minister for opposition. Though alliance were but no pre-poll alliance. Post poll alliance of all opposition and splinter parties except BJP but with Communists had a kichadi government. No acceptable face for Congress, BJP continued to be leading party in opposition but could not form alliance and government.

 

1998 Election and 1999 Election

BJP formed pre-poll alliance and had on its own 181 seats and formed a government. However in 1999 BJP lost No-Confidence Motion by one vote. Thanks to AIADMK and Amma BJP lost the no-confidence motion. In the following elections NDA won the election.

2004 Election

All survey results and pre-poll pollsters predicted NDA win but unfortunately NDA lost. The difference between NDA and UPA was AP. In earlier election AP delivered to NDA (TDA and BJP) and in 2004 elections AP completely voted in favour of Congress. YSR delivered AP to Congress. Vajpayee and Advani trusted Chandra Babu Naidu and believed that Regional Parties will deliver to NDA. But Regional Parties failed. DMK switched to UPA before elections and NDA lost. The difference between BJP and Congress was 7 seats. Congress had 145 and BJP had 138 seats. AP Contributed 30 seats to Congress and TRS had won 5 seats both helped Congress instead of BJP.

Is Modi and Amit Shah are like Vajpayee and Advani who will leave everything to Regional Party and wait for Regional Party to deliver?

2009 Elections

A biggest mistake by L.K.Advani during his campaign who was NDA candidate for Prime Minister and again AP helped UPA into power. Though L.K.Advani’s statement proved to be right subsequently but people did not believe Advani’s statement as they considered that statement as a target attack against Dr.Manmohan Singh. L.K.Advani in his election speech and in one of his interviews made a statement that if Dr.Singh is elected as PM, the government will be run from Sonia’s residence and he would not be able to take any bold decision. In fact he went to the extent of saying that India would have parallel power centre to PM and PM would be subservient to Congress President. Dr.Singh who was considered as Honest and upright politician by middle class did not like that attack and the entire middle class voted in favour of UPA. It was a victory for Dr.Singh. Again South state like AP/TN became important to UPA.

2014 elections: No need to talk as everybody knows.

But the lessons from elections till 2014 leads to following relevant questions for 2019 elections?

1. Does the arithmetic calculation of votes will lead Mahaghatbhandan to power? My answer is No. The reason is simple: People are very intelligent and they don’t prefer any khichdi government. First there is no Mahaghatbhandan. BSP-SP formed separate alliance without Congress. KCR in Telangana is against Congress. In AP TDP is not forming alliance with Congress. Again in 2019 in my humble view TDP will not win more than 5 seats and it would be YSR Congress and he would not join Mahaghatbhandan. By observing the elections from 1977, elections are decided largely by 20 to 25% voters who are undecided till last date. This group of voters would vote for the Party and leader who will bring stability. Largely this group consists of first time voters/middle class etc. This group prefers leader with stability and not a khichdi. This group prefers a leader who resonates with them. VP Singh/Vajpayee and Dr. Singh is a case to this point. The absence of powerful leader in the like of JP/Acharya Kriplani who can consolidate opposition party into one will help BJP. Further no opposition party prefers Rahul as every opposition leader is nursing a dream of becoming PM.  This may prove to be advantage for BJP and Modi.
2. Will Raffle bring down BJP and Modi? In my view No. Raffle is not Bofors. The more Rahul talks about Raffle will make people to have sympathy for Modi. The SC gave a clear verdict on Raffle. Unlike in Bofors where powerful ministers like VP Singh Arun Singh and Arun Nehru quit Rajiv and spoke against Rajiv. Here nobody talks though Congress provoked Nitin Gadhkari and Manohar Parrikar but they got it back. People may have a difference of view on Modi performance but Modi has a middle class following. Like how Advani gave Dr.Singh in platter in 2009, Rahul will give Modi 2019 in platter. Already Rahul opened his mouth by promising to reverse Triple Talaq bill which would help Muslim women to consolidate their votes against Congress. Same mistake his father did in reversing Shaho Bhano judgement. In Bofors there were complete investigation journalism pointing fingers to Rajiv. No such investigation journalism. The Hindu carried a story yesterday and in my view a diehard reader like me of The Hindu is upset for carrying half-baked stories. The way Nirmala Setharaman gave a rebuttal to The Hindu story forced The Hindu to bring the clarification in front page. An investigation due to sheer hatred for Modi. People have forgotten one basic theory. The more you hate a person it creates a sympathy in equal numbers for him. The political history from 1977 proves this point. Some people may like Modi and some people may hate him but nobody can ignore him. This simple fact may propel Modi in 2019
    
3. Is Modi and Amit Shah are like Vajpayee and Advani who will trust Regional Parties? Absolutely No. Vajpayee and Advani trusted Chandra Babu Naidu in 2004 and trusted other leaders. Modi and Amit Shah combine never believes others for their victory and they push themselves. May be this could be one of the reason why they gave an exit for Chandrababu Naidu. Everybody knows Naidu will have a difficult time in next assembly elections and he is on losing track. Thanks to his exit from NDA he is running from pillar to post to create a position for him. He aligned with Congress in Telengana elections and now he has decided that he will go alone in AP. Going by Modi and Amit shah’s election management skill sets they would have already identified 300 to 320 winnable constituencies and they would have deployed enough money muscle and man power in those constituencies.
4. Do opposition have powerful communicators to counter Modi?. Right or wrong whether we like it or not. It is going to be Modi vs others. Modi is powerful communicator and he knows how to reach masses and read peoples mind. People may not like Modi but everybody will agree to this fact that Modi is best in communication. Elections are won on Communication to undecided voters. Opposition lacks powerful leader who can communicate to people on Pan India basis. If Rahul is projected it would be advantage for Modi.  Mamta has to defend herself in Shradha scam. Chandrababu Naidu is not sure of winning of more than 5 seats in AP. I am sure when election approaches Akhilesh and Mayawati will have difference of views and Mayawati will quit the alliance or will do to ensure that SP will lose in UP. The lust for power and dreams of becoming PM will make every party to ensure that other party does not win. Unfortunately Communist have no place to go. They were powerful in 1989, 1996 and 1999 and their 40 to 50 MPs were proved to be great asset for non-BJP parties. In today’s positon they cannot get more than 5 MP’s.  In the run up to elections the following will emerge:
   1. National Herald case will become stronger and the likes of Subramanyam Swamy will be on the forefront who will bring more issues on National Herald etc.
   2. More stories will come from Augusta Westland Chopper.
   3. Rahul and Congress will be forced to defend them instead of bringing more issues against Modi.
5. People believe the win in MP/Rajasthan/Chhattisgarh prove that Modi is on losing track. It is incorrect. Let us take a simple analysis.BJP ruled MP for 15 years but the Congress just merely scraped through by 3 seats. Had Congress got 2/3^rd or decisive majority the assertion that Modi is losing track will be right. In Rajasthan Congress under the normal circumstances should have got 2/3^rd majority going by past, but got 100 seats just above the majority mark.  So to say Modi has lost is incorrect. In my view Loksabha elections are fought on Modi and people will decide Modi or not unlike assembly elections.
6. To win elections in 2019 the opposition will have to do following:
   1. Come under one umbrella and have a Common Minimum Program.
   2. UPA need to win critical states like Karnataka,AP,Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra etc.
   3. They need a powerful leader who could bring all of them under one umbrella but there is no such leader.
   4. People will weigh Modi vs Khichdi and people may prefer Modi.
7. Finally the dark horse in the absence of majority for BJP but BJP gets more than 200 seats, Pranab da can become winner. His attending RSS convention in Nagpur and recent conferring of Bharat Ratna to Pranab da makes me to think that RSS may prop up Pranab Da as PM candidate in the absence of Modi getting Majority.

Conclusion: I am not a political analyst but my favourite pastime of observing Political History made to me to write this piece. Final piece to my friends from Karnataka: The party ruling Karnataka has never ruled Central. You can check the history. That may be one of the reasons why Modi and Amit shah does not want to push Karnataka now as post Lok Sabha elections if Modi wins, MP,Rajasthan and Karnataka will come to Modi. They are reserving their best for 2019 LokSabha. For a change I wrote something other than Tax.